How to calculate grade boundaries

One of the frustrating things about starting a new spec is the lack of grade boundaries to help make a judgement about what grade students are on track to receive. Unfortunately, until there has been a cohort who take this exam and receive a grade, no one will be able to give accurate grade boundaries - we can only estimate. While the boundaries change year on year, they have remained roughly similar for the last 8 years (on the previous spec). It is of course possible for them to change further for a new specification, but this is still our best source of data to create a best estimate for the new one.

I have created a spreadsheet which gives a few alternative ways of calculating a 'best estimate' grade - these are best used alongside teacher professional judgements. This may potentially include you knowing your students' target grades, or comparing with previous cohorts. It may also help you to report a more nuanced grade, which is required by my school and I'm sure many others (ie. 4.1, 4.5, 4.9 to show how close they are to other grades around their 'grade'). My spreadsheet provides 4 different ways to calculate your 'best estimate' grade, and calculates each one for you. All you need to input is the students name and their raw marks for each paper.

The 4 methods are as follows:
* 2025 boundaries - these were relatively high boundaries, and the most recent set of boundaries we have to date.
* Average of all previous boundaries - exactly what it says on the tin, an average of all 8 years worth of published grade boundaries (with the exception of the speaking exam in 2020 and 2021).
* A high estimate - this calculation averages the 3 highest values there have been in the last 8 years. I wanted harsh boundaries to actually be based on some published data rather than an arbitrary +5%, +10% etc. I feel that this is gives a realistic estimated number if the grade boundaries in 2026 are quite high.
* A low estimate - for balance, I also calculated an average of the 3 lowest values that have been published over the last 3 years. These are not always the covid years, and I think adding this on helps to give the fullest picture possible at this stage.
* Finally, it will also calculate a % for you, including all necessary scaling.

The spreadsheet breaks down the grades into the 4 exams. I think this is important to help spot strengths and weaknesses and give effective feedback. In addition, if you are using this with year 10, or for any other reason you aren't doing a 'full mock' and only completing some of the papers, this will still calculate according to the above criteria. This has been done for each individual paper and grade, so you know it will be accurate (as much as any grade boundaries published before August 2026 can be). However, the overall grade only works properly if all papers have been completed and marked. I think this is good for my school - if a student hasn't done a paper they would likely score 0 or very poorly. If this isn't helpful to you though, you can use the calculations from the individual papers to give an overall grade that you think suits the student better.

Get your spreadsheet here - French and Spanish

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